Two out of the last three Trump Augusts have been incredible. They have been traumatic and somehow crazier than Trump’s crazy baseline. The madness begins tonight, with the airing of Trump’s interview with Axios reporter Jonathan Swan on HBO.

The scenario and the agenda seems to have been set by the news media in a traditional way. Reporters are writing that Trump has to turn things around before Labor Day, or he will lose the 2020 election. The history is clear. George W. Bush failed to turn things around in his summer of 1992. Jimmy Carter effectively lost support by the spring of 1980. Gerald Ford never had a chance in 1976.

Although Trump gets away with destroying rules and laws, I can’t see him winning re-election without cheating. So the news narrative is that Trump has to turn things around this month, right now. But there is more history at play, and it is Trump’s history. His track record in August is one of cascading disasters. We saw Charlottesville. We saw El Paso and Greenland. We also know that some of his crazy August behavior last year could be attributed to his knowledge that someone would file a complaint about his July 25 phone call with Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelensky.

Trump has to change his tone, but he won’t. He has to smile and soften his attitude. But he won’t. He has to be competent. But he never was. The game is up. Prepare for a meltdown this month. The really bad shit starts now. Yes, life has been terrible since February. I’m saying it’s about to get much worse. It’s August. It’s what August does.