Newcastle United: Goodbye, Premier League

 [I tried writing this post on October 5, and I failed to delay it being published before it was ready. And while Newcastle's situation has improved somewhat as of October 18, I am leaving this up. Unprofessional, sure. But this isn't a professional blog.]

I regret not posting any opinions about what was the most exciting transfer window for Newcastle United since the summer of 2012. But now I can offer a more accurate prediction of where Newcastle will end up next June: one league down, in the SkyBet Championship. Newcastle are doomed this season.

Before I give my take on the 2014-15 campaign and the objectives for 2015-16, you should read Phil's post over at I Wish I Was A Geordie. When he published his piece, I realized that he summed up over half the points I wanted to make here, and he did a better job than I would anyway. My opinion here is still that of a Yank supporter trying to criticize and analyze the club objectively, except I will try not to repeat Phil. So here goes.

In the 2013-14 season, Newcastle were saved by a leased striker, Loic Remy. He scored 14 goals while on loan. Without him, they wouldn't have the goals required to earn their 49 points and finish in a remarkable (and undeserved) 10th place. They were also helped, at times, by the likes of Davide Santon, Yojan Cabaye, Mathieu Debuchy, and Moussa Sissoko. It was also a season brought serious trust and reliability issues for their captain, Fabricio Coloccini, and an astonishing season for the other central defender, Mike Williamson. With both Taylors injured at various times, Williamson was the unlikeliest of heroes in the backfield. The club had an over-performing defender, a prolific striker, and some inconsistent, but overall good players on the wings. That earned safety and the chance for the club to make significant improvements in-between campaigns.

However, the club instead chose to blow that chance, in favor of enhancing its profit margin. There was no summer shopping spree. Instead of setting the stage to give Alan Pardew a clear chance to fix his tactical mistakes, the club undermined Pardew through the unnecessary hiring of Joe Kinnear as Director of Football. This would be the first of two similar blown chances in a short period of time (the second would come just 6 months later when manager Alan Pardew resigned). In the summer of 2014, the club needed to buy one or two central midfielders. They needed to at least consider getting a defensive midfielder to replace the injury-prone Chiek Tiote. They needed a first-team quality striker. Of those three requirements (and surely there were more), they only completed the last one - the signing of Siem De Jong. That would have helped if he wasn't injured so often. So the team relied on it's other striker signed in the summer of 2014, Ayoze Perez.

The summer of 2013 was similar. Thee were signings. But it wasn't like Pardew's first summer, when Cabaye, Obertan, Santon, and Marveaux were signed. A summer without strong signings can lead to a thin, demoralized squad when the injuries and losses pile up. Then the relegation battle begins. 

How did such a big club get here for the third season in a row? And why do I think they cannot save themselves from relegation in this third drop to the bottom? Well simply put, they should have been relegated last season, and a new manager, a new system, and new signings are all too late to save Newcastle. Steve McClaren will try to keep his club calm, but the 10 wins needed to secure safety are not coming. Goals are not coming. And this team seems doomed to concede the first goal in nearly every match.

And even when this team does score the first goal (improbable first goals to boot), they still fail to win. 

This post was written on October 5th, and at the time, Newcastle's next 6 games looked winnable, on paper. Well, so were 3 of their first 8 legaue games this season. For this reason, I am calling it: Newcastle are going to be relegated. Relegation would be devistating. It would set the club back 5 years, financially. It would mean at least another 10 years without Europe tournaments. I know how bad it would be. But a part of me knows that Newcastle would deserve it. Relegation would make the owner hold on to the team longer, but it would force players out who need to go (Tioté, Sissoko, Coloccini).

Only in retrospect, after 3 years, do we know how the club got here, even though it has been happening before our eyes since the winter of 2013. Who or what is to blame? It isn't the owner. It was never the mangers after Sir Bobby Robson. It was and is the failed transfer policy. That shouldn't be a surprise, because we heard that three-word phrase as early as the summer of 2013. Couple that with a failed summer transfer strategy, and you have a disaster. I will try to explain.

This past Summer, Newcastle signed 5 players at the cost of £52.6 Million before salaries. Of those, 3 are proving themselves to be capable of playing and succeeding in the Premier League. The rest are development players with Premier League salaries and needing at least a year to get up to Premier League fitness and strength. And still, the team needs new central defenders and a true defensive midfielder.

Manager Steve McLaren has acknowledged this. He has been upfront that he doesn't see a roster full of players he needs until February 2017. But we fans are convinced that he isn't choosing the new players. We don't think any Newcastle manager since Allerdyce has been involved in player scouting and recruitment. That work is done by chief scout, Graham Carr.

What has Newcastle done under Carr? It has "bought for value." The team has brought in promising mainland European talent, who have ended up in a few, fairly predicable scenarios. Some have proven to be capable of succeeding in the Premier League, which eventually attracts a profitable bid from a bigger club. Some players become unhappy, and see their time at Newcastle as an audition to play for a more famous club. That would be okay if they were engaged and played hard in every appearance (that's you, Moussa Sissoko). Then there are the flops. The Ben Arfas. The Marveauxs. The Cabellas. The Thauvins?

When a team brings in flops, and the best guys are sold, you are left with a second-tier team in a top-tier league. If the new arrivals don't start producing - if service to the strikers doesn't improve - and if Wjindulum and Mitrovic don't increase their goal rate, this team is going down.

NUFC: Winning Is No Longer Accidental

Newcastle 2, Chelsea 1

What is it with Newcastle's success against Chelsea under Alan Pardew?

How many times has Pardew beaten Chelsea? He has done it four times; once each year since 2011. And if you go back to September 2010, when Chris Houghton was in charge, Newcastle have defeated Chelsea in five consecutive calendar years. Each time has been a rush. I treat myself to quality meat when it happens. I celebrated Newcastle's improbable upset victory at Stamford Bridge in the 2010-2011 League Cup with a filet mignon at SushiSamba. I celebrated this latest win with a bacon cheeseburger at the Piper's Kilt. 

In October and November, Chelsea looked unstoppable. They are arguably the best team in Europe.

How about this match? It evolved. It had transitions. It had a transfer in the balance of power, confidence, and control. If you are into tactics and grit, this was your must-see match of week.

The match began with Chelsea making crisp passes and creating chances. However, almost all of their early shots were off-target. Newcastle were struggling to create chances, and their attacks were being broken up well before they could get to their opponent's area. Newcastle's first big chance came in the 32nd minute, and it should have ended with a goal. Ayoze Pérez made a brilliant back-heel pass to Jack Colback in front of the net. Colback had a ton of net to aim at, and yet missed. He put his forehead down on the pitch, knowing that it could have been his team's only real chance of the day.

But then the game transitioned. Chelsea didn't control the match the same way they did in the first thirty minutes. Newcastle finally had some sustained attacks. There still weren't any shots on target, but they were holding onto the ball more.

During added time in the first half, Newcastle keeper, Rob Elliott, tore a thigh muscle while kicking the ball down-field. Seconds later, a cross from Sammy Ameobi didn't connect, and the half ended scoreless. Newcastle had few chances, were lucky not to be down a goal, and had lost their second string keeper indefinitely.

My feeling at that point was that Newcastle had a chance at a draw. So long as they did not concede the first goal, they were going to hang on for a point. There was no need to panic. Even with the third string goalkeeper, 21 year-old Jak Alnwick, taking over from Elliot, I was not nervous. On Facebook, I posted the following status:

“It’s going to be a thrilling 45 minutes of football as Newcastle attempt to hold off Chelsea. Defense!”

I thought half of the midfield did extremely well. And that half was named Jack Colback and Moussa Sissoko. In my notes, they shared the man of the match honors. They were involved in almost every big play. Which brings us to the 57th minute. Sissoko had possession and charged with the ball into the left side of the area. He rolled the ball to Sammy Ameobi, who quickly crossed the ball through Chelsea's Cahill and Terry to Cissé, who was perfectly positioned, and just had to stick out his right foot to score. St. James' Park came alive. Suddenly there was a game and Newcastle had a lead to protect. Cissé had come in to replace Remy Cabella in the 53rd minute. It had to be energizing to to see him make an almost immediate impact on the game.

The defense then stepped-up. Janmaat, Steven Taylor, Coloccini, and Dummett all did their jobs. With each minute, Newcastle seemed to gain a little confidence. 

Then things became shaky. Eden Hazard hit the post in the 78th minute. But Newcastle did one of the things they do best: they counter-attacked. In a stunning sequence that immediately followed, Colback, Pérez, Sissoko, and Cissé all combined to score the crucial second goal. It was a sequence that pretty much summed-up Newcastle's offensive capability this season. Colback began the counter-attack with a stiff-arm tackle and took possession. There was no whistle for that. From there, Colback passed the ball to Pérez at midfield, who was fouled hard into the air and down, but not before he made a short pass to  Colback. The referee made the call of the match. He gave Newcastle the advantage, and let them play on. Colback connected to Sissoko in the left side of the area with a magnificent through-ball. Chelsea keeper Thibaut Courtois came out to meet him, and almost got the ball. The attack looked over. But Sissoko managed a last-millisecond pass, through Courtois' hands to Cissé who calmly tapped it through a row of three defenders into the empty net. It was game over.

Except it wasn't. Of course not. This club? It's a roller coaster.

While Diego Costa and Fábregas lost their nerve and were both carded two minutes later, a Newcastle collapse was on the horizon, as Steve Tayor mad a bad challenge in the 81st minute, and picked up a second yellow card. He had been booked early in the second half for pulling down Willian. And this foul was no less intentional, as he ran over Schurrle 25 yards away from the Newcastle goal. It was cynical and reckless, and he was off. On the next play, Drogba headed the ball pass Alnwick on a free kick. The ball was visible from beginning to end, and Alnwick was not in the best position. Newcastle would be spending the next 9 minutes, plus 6 minutes of extra time, hanging on to a one goal lead. And they just hung on for the win.

Incredible. Jose Mourinho didn't take it very well at first, but was classy in the end. Sort of. As Gabriele Marcotti of ESPN pointed out, Mourinho is very clever, and selects his words very deliberately to help steer the English sports media.

Now how did this improbable victory happen? Was Newcastle better prepared? Did Chelsea see their trip up to the chilly northeast as a nuisance? Or was this yet another example of Newcastle relying on counter-attacks to stun a bigger, better club?

That's Matt's argument over at I Wish I Was a Geordie. Let's accept his argument that Newcastle are built to bite bigger squads through counter-attacking. After all, he's a pundit, unlike me. But then how do we explain that Newcastle have done it against 4 teams in just 2 months (City, Spurs, Liverpool, and Blues)? Do their opponents not watch footage and scout them? If Matt is correct, we can expect Newcastle to have similar success against Arsenal and Man United before this month is over.

On the flip side of Matt's argument, he has an excellent point. If Newcastle play a 4-4-2 diamond with a counter-attack mindset against dominant squads, how come they fail to get three points when they play a 4-3-3 formation against a more equal side? Why couldn't they beat West Ham or Burnley last month? Is it a lack of motivation and consistency?

Still, isn't it time to give Alan Pardew credit for this recent turn-around in form? What if Pardew's tactical plan against Chelsea was to get a draw? Then clearly his squad exceed expectations by scoring two unanswered goals against the best team in Europe, yes? Furthermore, can we explain how Newcastle effectively attacked Chelsea down the left side in both halves? Didn't Pardew do his homework? A good team needs to take advantage of lapses and mistakes by their opponents, and that's exactly what Newcastle did. And like everything else in team sports, the next game will tell us more about this squad, and how far they can go this season.

And so, how does Pardew and his players prepare for their trip to Arsenal with over 10 players unavailable due to injury or suspension? The back four appears to be set with Janmaat, Williamson, Coloccini (or Dummett), and Haïdara. But the midfield and strikers are anyone's guess. The consensus is that Newcastle are going to have to play Tioté, Cabella, Colback, Gouffran, and Anita in the midfield at some point in the game. So why not use a 4-3-3 formation? Have Colback be the center of the midfield, and Cissé be the center forward, with Pérez on the wing?

Here's a guess at what is possible on Saturday:

Now on to the pundits.

Jim McMeachin, Coming Home Newcastle: 

“Fabricio Coloccini and Steven Taylor had the unenviable task of stopping Diego Costa, who so far as we know is still living in Captain Colo’s back pocket.”

Michael Fox, ESPN: 

“It’s easy to say Cisse should have started, but he wouldn’t have offered such an outlet when Chelsea were piling on the pressure in the opening stages. Perez played that role nicely; Cisse then provided an instant impact. It worked perfectly, and sometimes managers — even Pardew — deserve the credit.”

NUFC: Another Team Effort Makes It Six Wins In A Row

Newcastle 1, QPR 0

Five league wins in a row. Six wins in a row. Three consecutive clean sheets. Fifth place in the Premier League table. Are you kidding me? Is this happening?

Newcastle put on an impressive display in the midfield, as Jack Colback and Remy Cabella led the squad to edge QPR in both chances and possession (the first time NUFC won over 50% possession in a while).

Ryan Taylor was also an early leader, with an electrifying performance in his first start in nearly 1,000 days. But a pulled muscle sent him off after a little over 30 minutes. With tears in his eyes, he feared the worst. But hopefully, his will return in early 2015.

The midfield battle, the team's consistent performance,  and in-game substitutions proved to be the difference in this one. When the winner finally came, it was a stunning shot by Mousa Sissoko, to notch his second game-winning goal in less than 30 days. He had a monster of a match, leading the defense with Cabella. When Ryan Tylor had to leave the match, the captain's armband was transferred to Sissoko for the second time this season, and he acted very much like a captain should.

Alan Pardew's critics argue that these last six victories have been accidental. They have involved luck, to be sure. But I find myself agreeing with those who argue that the club is doing better than expected with a weak system in-place. 

We have seen years of management by Pardew to understand his mindset and overall tactics. The last two seasons have shown us that Pardew has improved in his player selections, and the team is relying less on long passes. However, Pardew's system still relies on counterattacking, and whether intentionally, or due to bad luck, he relies too much on one striker. Pardew has not had a striker tandem since Demba Ba and Papiss Cisse in the spring of 2012.

There is another way to analyze this win streak, and it has to do with personnel. Pardew was not allowed to strengthen the team during the summer. He was only allowed to replace what had been lost, and get a couple of prospects for future use. Furthermore, we fans have no idea if Pardew has any input on who is being scouted and recruited (he assume he has no say). Due to injuries and the team's desire to keep the win streak going, Pardew has let the young guys play. 

Rolando Aarons and Ayoze Perez were not expected to get more than a few appearances, let alone starts. But now they are the new stars of the club. The players brought on board to be the new stars, Cabella and Riviere, have not yet reached their expected levels of production. But Cabella, Janmaat, and Colback have become stronger, working together in most matches. And finally, Massadio Haidara has gotten experience starting at left back, and he has gotten better. At age 21, he is showing the potential to be Newcastle's best left back since Jose Enrique. 

In short, Newcastle did not plan to become a deeper squad, but they now have depth thanks to a positive attitude, and the willingness of young players and the manager to give youth a chance. Add the fact that the team has stopped conceding the first goal for the time being, and the wins have stacked-up. 

It is on to East London now. If Newcastle can win or draw against West Ham, they will have their second consecutive undefeated November, and they will be firmly in competition for a spot in the Europa League. Winning is like a drug, and this team is the happiest and most confident it has been since the spring of 2012. Maybe next time they are in Europe, Newcastle can see a tournament as an opportunity rather than a distraction.

The story of this season is "let the kids play."

Two More Shutout Victories Propel NUFC To Eighth Place

West Brom 0, Newcastle 2

NUFC notched their fifth straight victory and have leaped over several teams to eighth in the Premier League table. It was a second straight comfortable win, following last week's shutout of Liverpool at home. When their well-organized 4-3-3 formation put pressure on the Baggies, the opposition virtually lost its ability to mount an attack. Aside for a 7 minute stretch halfway through the first half, West Brom didn't threaten Newcastle for any sustained period.

Their goal differential has improved to -2. Tim Krul got his third clean sheet of the season (and his second straight).

The players of the match were at the front and back. At the front, young Spanish striker, Ayoze Perez, scoring first again for the Magpies with a morale-crushing, sublime, back-heel re-direction at the end of the first half. At the back, defenders Janmaat, Coloccini, and Dummett provided the tackles and a much improved aerial attack. The crossing and corners by Newcastle in this match were the best they had executed in months, perhaps years. Janmaat's cross to Coloccini's header put Newcastle ahead 2-0 early in the second half. West Brom nearly stopped playing, and the visiting Geordie fans made The Hawthorns sound like St. James' Park with their chants and singing. Newcastle need to continue to improve their air attack and set plays if they want to keep climbing the table.

The man of the match had to be Janmaat with both assists.

I think Newcastle must defeat QPR back home on November 22. Then they will regroup for a trip to West Ham November 29. They are two matches away from an undefeated November. This second international break of the season will be a lot less stressful than the first. 

Last year, an unbeaten November and a guy named Remy saved the season. This year, an unbeaten November could help punch a ticket back to Europa.

NUFC Defy Odds And History To Advance To League Cup Final Eight

League Cup, Fourth Round: Manchester City 0, Newcastle 2

No one thought Newcastle could advance in the current League Cup after drawing Manchester CIty away.

But tonight, Newcastle won their first ever match at the Etihad. And they did it with several of their reserve players. It was almost a youth squad. It was incredible. More significant, it was deserved. Newcastle's kids outplayed Man City for 98 minutes.

It was Newcastle's biggest win in the League Cup since upsetting Chelsea at Stamford Bridge in September 2010.

Man City dominated possession, 60 to 30 percent. However, they suffered from the same bug that inflicted Tottenham on Sunday. They couldn't get quality shots on goal, while Newcastle's defense and Rob Elliot stopped all the others. 

Ryan Taylor made his first appearance in over two years, since tearing a cruciate ligament in his right knee. He led the defense, while Gabriel Obertan (man of the match) was the most defensive of the midfielders tonight.

Oh yes, who did Pardew select to play tonight?

Newcastle were deployed in a 4-3-3 formation, with two teenagers, Adam Armstrong and Rolando Aarons, leading the way. There were six changes made compared to their last start at Tottenham. And it payed-off brilliantly. City were vulnerable early, and Aarons made them pay with a goal in the 6th minute. From then on, Newcastle played with intensity, and City just couldn't take back control of the match.

Paul Dummett, normally a left back, was asked to play as a center back, and he held up fairly well. Massadio Haïdara might have had his best match yet as a Newcastle player, putting in a full 90 minutes shadowing James Milner, and making the most interceptions of any player in the match.

City suffered injuries during the match, so an already weakened squad became weaker as the match went on. Defender David Silva limped off in the 8th minute. But that has no effect on the judgement of Newcastle's stellar performance. 

Pardew and company knew they could virtually guarantee victory with a second goal, and so they began the second half almost the same way they began the second half at White Hart Lane, with a pre-kickoff substitution of an existing striker (Aarons) with Sammy Ameobi. Aarons had a tremendous first half, but I suspect he ran out of steam, and was not getting firm control of the ball after he scored early.

Newcastle sealed the deal with two substitutions in the 65th minute. Moussa Sissoko came on for Janmaat, and Emmanuel Rivière came on for Armstrong. 11 minutes later, Sissoko dribbled through the left side of the area and blasted the ball to the far right side of the net. He looked angry after scoring. You could tell he had been waiting to score for months.

The Mags could still blow it, of course. There were 6 minutes of injury time added. Riviere could have made it three when the ball crossed inches away from him in the box. Newcastle could have sat back during those final minutes, but Haïdara, Obertan, Coloccini, and Taylor all finished strong on defense.

And there's no need to bring up the officiating blunder, is there? Obertan was on-side, and about to receive a pass at the top of the box, when Aleksandar Kolarov took him down before he made contact with the ball. There was no whistle and no penalty kick given. There wasn't even a free kick given. Replays from every angle show that it should have been at least a free kick, and at most, a PK and a red card. It was outrageous. But it's moot now. Also, how nutty is it that Obertan was nearly in alone on goal at the Etihad, with his team up a goal? This is how Newcastle drives us fans crazy. But what a fun two weeks this has been.

On Saturday, Newcastle host the Reds at what surely will be a loud, and slightly wild St. James' Park. Liverpool are suffering from morale and confidence problems at the moment. Newcastle must remain confident and organized. Their 4-3-3 formation held very well against City. They need to maintain their form as the first team players, led by Tim Krul, take the pitch in less than 72 hours.

Alan Pardew was, shall we say, smug? He couldn't quite contain himself in the first interview for Sky Sports. He settled down for the team video (the second video below).

Now on to some more links.

Alan Pardew:

“I do know what I’m doing.”

Neil Cameron, The Evening Chronicle: 

“The team was set up perfectly in that whenever they broke, they did so in numbers, Whenever City attacked there were at least six black and white shirts in front of Rob Elliot, who had a fine game himself.”

Phil, I Wish I Was A Geordie:

“The manager deserves all the credit in the world for how he lined the team up. Paul Dummett at center back and the returning Rolando Aarons and Ryan Taylor all came up aces for the manager. Even his substitutions were flawless.”

NUFC: Inspired Second Half Delivers First Away League Win Of The Season

Alan Pardew made changes both before and during the match at White Hart Lane, and got a result. It was an injury to Papiss Cisse that forced Pardew to change his attacking formation and striker selections. But it was the changes made at halftime that helped flip the game. 

I was going to title this post "Inspired Second Half Delivers Dramatic Comeback Victory Away." The point is obvious. Newcastle United had not come from behind to win a league match in over a year, and they had not won an away league fixture since March 1,  2014.

What happened? Well, let's start with the team Alan Pardew selected after confirming that his star striker was not available due to injury. Pardew once again ordered his team into a 4-2-3-1 formation. For the second straight match, Anita started in place of Cabella as the attacking midfielder.

Pardew's selections were precisely what Phil predicted over at I Wish I Was A Geordie.

Even a casual tactic observer like me knows that Obertan is more effective on the left side. He proved that in Europa League matches back in 2012. Regardless, this is what we got at kickoff, and right away, both teams under-performed for different reasons. Tottenham could have easily scored 2 or 3 goals, but lacked confidence in their final balls and touches, and they were not playing at full speed. 

What happened next might not be entirely true, but what was visible speaks for itself. Alan Pardew says that he yelled at his team, saying that they were playing like a small club, and that they had to change their attitude:

We needed to offer a threat. We’re Newcastle United. We’re not a small club. We’re a big club and we were playing like a small club.

Pardew began the second half with two halftime substitutions. Sammy Ameobi replaced Gouffran, and Remy Cabella came in for Anita. Newastle kicked-off to start the second half. Colbeck held the ball, backed up to the circle, with his back towards his keeper, and launched a perfect, 30-yard lob to a charging Sammy Ameobi, who controlled the ball on the left side and put the ball into the far right of the net. In just seven seconds, the match was level. And Newcastle took over the match.

From that point forward, Newcastle had the better passing and defense. They were shaky. Often, they went back to their habit of hanging back, when Tottenham was not putting on any high pressure at all. The Spurs became disorganized. Almost all their shots went wide. And then Remy Cabella did what was expected of him when he was acquired by the club. He put up a lovely cross, and Ayoze Perez, who had been in the correct position all match, but couldn't get the final ball, headed it past a defender and the keeper. 

Ayoze Perez had been keeping up with the more muscular, more experienced Premier League players all day. But he lacked finishing. He was not having a productive match. But that all changed when he got his first league goal, which proved to be the game winner.

The rest o the match was more typical Newcaslte United of late. Perez was replaced by Haidara, who interestingly played forward a lot, when he job was to break up passes and defend. Sammy Ameobi was electrifying as he broke up several passes by the opponents. Throw in some key blocks by Taylor and Coloccini, plus a couple of key catches by Krul, and it was game over.

We Toon supporters were shocked, and I think so was the manager.

Now on to what more expert pundits had to say.

Kevin Christie, The Mag: 

The Newcastle manager has his faults and the stats show just how poor his side have been since last Christmas but if he continues to be brave and throw caution to the wind, Pardew may just win one or two fans over once again.

Matt, I Wish I Was A Geordie:

There was no apparent strategy other than packing it in around goal. Then Ameobi came on at halftime and scored six seconds after the whistle, and suddenly Newcastle decided it felt like playing.

See more Pardew post-game comments here.
 

NUFC: A Turning Point In The 2014-2015 Campaign?

I have been away for far too long. I finally got around to upgrading this blog to Squarespace 7. And while I am still ironing out the new template, Newcastle's first victory of the season demands that I write about it.

And of course I missed it. Lady Serling and I were up in Newport, touring The Brakers, eating fried seafood, and doing the cliff walk.

I woke up this morning to jokes about After Eights on Facebook, and it took me a while to figure out what that was about.

I only knew one thing: Newcastle pulled off a must win. Could this be a turning point in their frustrating, under-performing season?

Tim Krul got a much needed clean sheet. Anita got a solid start. Armstrong was left on the bench, where he belongs. And Gabriel Obertan, arguably the hardest worker on the pitch all season, got the goal he deserved.

Suddenly Newcastle are one upset victory away from mid-table. They play Tottenham next in the league, and that would qualify as an upset, if they won.

Again, I did not see this match, but I understand that Alan Pardew continues to push his players into a 4-2-3-1 formation. Vernon Anita started as the center midfielder in place of the struggling Remy Cabella. Moussa Sissoko has not contributed in the midfield at all, but did play the full 90 minutes. And Newcastle had some chances. This could have ended 2-0 or 3-0. Key saves by Krul preserved the shutout. And the back four held together, with Ryan Taylor in place of Mike WIlliamson. 

Next match is Saturday October 25 at White Hart Lane. 

NUFC: Another Summer Of Discontent

This this time of year,I try to write a post about Newcastle United's summer transfer activity and strategy for the new season, which begins just over a month after the FIFA World Cup concludes. 

I began writing this post on June 8 at San Juan International Airport. I was in the same terminal in June 2011, which was Alan Pardew's first summer with the club as manager. In that month, Pardew embarked on his strategy of buying undervalued French players and trying to develop them into Premier League starters. Newcastle had bought one such player before Pardew was hired. That player was Hatem Ben Arfa, an under the radar deal completed by Pardew's predecessor, Chris Houghton.

Pardew's four purchases that June signaled an attempt to build a new midfield. He brought in Sylvain Marveaux (left wing), Gabriel Obertan (right wing), and Yohan Cabaye (attacking center), the man who could become Newcastle's next number 10, to lead the offense. The hope was that Marveaux could replace Jonas Gutierrez, and Obertan could start cup matches, giving the injury-prone Ben Arfa rest in what could have been a run of seasons in the UEFA Europa League, as well as a possible League Cup run.

Well, Newcastle supporters knew what happened after that. The club had a season in which they overperformed, due in large part to their defense and it's rising star goalkeeper, Tim Krul. That gained them entry to the Europa League. However Pardew and the club almost immediately regretted playing in Europe. In match after match in that tournament, Newcastle showed resiliency in the backfield, but an inability to score up front. While Cabaye and Ben Arfa proved themselves to be the most talented offensive players, there were strong signs that they didn't fit with the other players. Also, it had become well documented that Pardew was deploying 3-3-4 and diamond formations because he recognized that he lacked natural strikers who could be used in a 4-4-2 formation.

Despite Pardew's occasional encouragement of diamond formations, the squad lead the league in long passes, rather than the short, triangular passes that can sustain attacks and produce chances. The squad gradually replied on counterattacking for goal scoring opportunities, no matter which midfield players Pardew chose to start. It wouldn't be long before knowledgeable supporters recognized that the squad's problem was not a matter of incorrect player selections by the manager, but rather a failed strategy.

Pardew and the board brought in talented players who were not attracting too much interest from bigger clubs. Simply put, they were making value conscious purchases. If one of them proved to becomes quality starter in the EPL, such as Cabaye, then he became a profitable sale opportunity. Conversely, if he was not trusted or utilized by Pardew, he became dead weight, and lose value, as was the case with Marveaux.

All the while, Newcastle's inability to score proved to be the biggest concern. They dropped from sixth to sixteenth in the table in just twelve months, saving their 2012-2013 season with a lucky win against QPR in the penultimate match.

Players who fell out of favor were felt away, with unsuccessful attempts to replace them during transfer windows. Furthermore, the last two summer transfer windows before this current one were not productive. It was about about cashing in rather than building. A spurt of purchaes in January 2013 helped save that season, and until this month, there had been no new acquisitions.

Which brings us to this current round of purchases. Basically, Pardew and company lost an entire year in maintaining their squad. What we are seeing today, with the purchase of two players, should have occurred a year ago. However, that was blocked by the asinine hiring of Joseph Kinnear as Director of Football, who essentially blocked Pardew from doing what he needed to do to right the ship (putting aside the probability that Pardew doesn't have a chart to navigate his ship).

Now Pardew finds himself in a very similar position he was in last June. He has lost talented players. His squad cannot score, and is in terrible form. Pardew has become the sixth consecutive manager since the Sir Bobby Robson era to fail to steer the squad to a positive goal differential in the EPL.

This summer, Pardew is faced with the additional problem of a broken defense (something I doubt he recognizes nor cares about). Last year, the defense was a key injury away from being broken. Fortunately, Mike Williamson surprised everyone and became the squad's most improved player. However, this squad cannot rely on Williamson in the season ahead. Every defender, with the arguable exception of Dummett and Williamson, is no longer helpful. Coloccini wants to leave. Steven Taylor has served his purpose. Matthieu Debuchy wants to reunite with Cabaye at PSG. And Davide Santon, once one of the best offensive defensemen in the Premier League, has become a liability. This defense, ideally, needs to be completely rebuilt.

But time was lost last year, and now time is being lost this year, as the World Cup has the whole football world shelving transfer news for the next month. And the stack of things to do over at the club is higher now than it was in May 2013. Last year, Newcastle arguably only needed a new defender, midfielder, and a striker. They only managed to get a quality striker on loan. This summer, they need 3 or 4 new defenders, 2 or 3 new midfielders, and 2 or 3 new strikers. But that won't happen. They are already running out of precious time.

Before the World Cup, Newcastle was able to make two small purchases. They purchased second tier Spanish striker Ayoze Perez. Days later, they acquiredJack Colback on a free transfer after his contract had expired at Sunderland. Now transfer season is on-hold for Newcastle until the World Cup is finished. What ar the next moves, Alan? The league fixtures have been announced, and the clock is ticking.

Newcastle United FC Can't Close

Saturday, January 19, 2013.

Newcastle 1, Reading 2.

What the hell was that? I was at Saint James's Park for the first time since choosing to support this club nearly 20 years ago. I learned before my trip that I can never expect a win in this current campaign. But on an iron gray day, in a slushy, iron gray city, I saw Newcastle's problems first hand.

And where should I begin? The injuries are a given. But what I saw was a superior squad that couldn't finish chances in an otherwise fine first half, stopped playing in the second half, and topped it off with a disasterous tactical substitution by Alan Pardew. That's shooting yourself in each foot (one foot twice, I suppose). And what depresses me is that this squad has not learned from its mistakes. With the possible exception of Yohan Cabaye and Sylvain Marveaux, who continue their positive play, I saw no one else on the pitch who showed improvement over what they had done since October or so.

Jonas, I love you. But you can't send a properly weighed ball into the box. You need to lay it off to a defender or another midfielder to do the honors. Newcastle's opponents know that. It hurts to watch. Coloccini had a fine first half. However, he was afraid to have the ball touch him in the second (along with Jonas), and it cost the team dearly. Shola Ameobi, were you there the whole game? And James Perch, I saw you come on in the 65th minute. But I don't remember you touching the ball.

Congratulations, Cisse, you got three shots on the target in the first half, two straight on the keeper. Last year you could beat the keeper on every shot you took. You were leathal. This is simply not your year. Anita, Cabaye, and Marveaux, I'm sorry. I'm sorry your teammates didn't want to win as much as you did.

Jonas and Williamson are solid, durable 'squad players'. But that's not enough. Not in this league with a third of the clubs not possessing the quality it used to demand. Let's face it, the English Premier League is weak. It has been for at least three seasons now.

Did I mention it was gray, cold, snowy, and miserable?

I know what pundits say. They say that Newcastle look too good to be a relagation team. Once they get Steven Taylor and Hatem Ben Arfa back, they will upset a bigger club, like Liverpool or Arsenal. I see their point. Newcastle can pass the ball extremely well. They can defend when they are trying. They have talent. But there is a danger to this analysis. Those two upset possibilities come at the end of the season. Newcastle probably need six wins to secure safety. Where do any wins come from if the team stops playing in the second half of matches?

Before this dismal run began in October, Newcastle's problem was slow starts. They couldn't score in the first half. Now they can't hold leads. They have lost four leads since Christmas. And all season long, one rule has remained in place: they lose when they concede the first goal.

I should stop right there. I will let the more knowledgeable bloggers dissect this latest failure below. But I will conclude with the most concise summary I can on Newcastle's fate this season. This squad must defeat every team beneath them on the table if they are survive. Reading are beneath them, and Newcastle failed to win. Now they must not only defeat every team beneath them, but they must defeat multiple teams above them, like Swansea, West Ham, Sunderland (of course), and Aston Villa (next match). It makes no sense to hope for Norwich and Southampton to fall. They must defeat Southampton and QPR, who remain beneath them and who they face this spring. Who can be confident that they can defeat those sorry squads after this latest display against reading? Anyone? I thought not.

Six wins. Where will they come from? If they win one game per month, they will be two games short. They need two consecutive wins, and we know they aren't going to get that. Reading and QPR are going down. Newcastle, Norwich, Southampton, and possibly Aston Villa are competing for the final relegation spot. Yes, competing. They are practically falling over each other for the honors of being dropped. And having learned from 2009, once you start calculating the odds of relagstion, your favorite team is doomed.

I need a drink. Two.

On to the bloggers who have recovered enough to speak up thus far.

Lee Ryder, Blog On The Tyne:

In the aftermath of Loic Remy's decision to snub Newcastle United in favour of Queens Park Rangers it made me wonder just what direction the game is heading when it comes to player ambition and certainly passion. 

Matty, View From The Shite Seats:

We need a big win.A win that we should’ve got on Saturday if it wasn’t for an overtly negative approach after half time.

Toon Still Unbeaten In League Play

Newcastle have earned an extraordinary 19 points in 9 league games. They still need 40 points to ensure safety in the league. However, given how weak the Premiership seems to be this season, Newcastle should race to that total before the ground thaws in the spring of 2012.

But are they really good enough to qualify for an UEFA tournament next season? So soon? They are going to remain in the top six so long as Tim Krul remains brilliant in net, and the defense and midfield continue to develop as a unit. But their first league defeat has to be on the horizon. If not against Stock, then Everton, or Manchester City. The first league defeat is coming. How the squad deals with it will help define this season and the team's spirit.

Two highlights from Saturday's match against Wigan sum up the game. In the first half, Tim Krul made a tremendous save against Wigan's Vctor Moses, who fired a rising shot that was labeled for a spot under the crossbar. Then, late in the second half, the French midfield finally produced a goal. In the 80th minute, Sylvain Marveaux fed a beutiful pass backward to the outside center-right of the box, where Yohan Cabaye fired a rising shot into the top left corner. It was a perfect shot, perfect finish. Game, set, match, Newcastle. 

Here' wat my favorite NUFC blogs had to say:

Black and White and Read All Over:

Pardew had what he referred to as "<em>a little chat</em>" with the players at the interval - not quite the stirring oratory of half-time in February's meeting with Arsenal, you'd imagine, but certainly enough to urge them into a hungrier and more purposeful second-half performance.

Blog on the Tyne:

Cabaye's character is already shining through at Newcastle and long may it continue.

View From the Shite Seats:

It was an undeserved victory for a United side who had struggled all afternoon to create any chances of note and also to keep out a Wigan team who looked far more impressive than their lowly-position would suggest.

Newcastle To Be Put To The Test

There shouldn't be anything to assist Newcastle on Sunday, aside from plenty of rest and the enthusiastic support of home spectators. Sunday's match will be a true test of Newcastle's potential. They will host the Spurs, a side that has arguably has one of the best four midfields in the English Premier League.

Newcastle's new Franco-centric midfield will be the focus as a goal will almost surely be needed from them to support Newcastle's forwards, Demba Ba and Leon Best. Best and Ba have begun to gel and score goals, but in a game like this, I think a goal from a non forward would go a long way towards victory. Could be a long range shot, or a set play. We'll see if I am correct.

Newcastle will not be facing a full strength Tottenham side, as the Spurs will be without their star striker, Emmanuel Adebayor. However, the Spurs are full of weapons against the Magpies, who are slight underdogs.

Newcastle will have the option of using Shola Ameobi and Hatem Ben Arfa as substitutes, since both have recently declared fit. Fatigue should not be an issue for the Toon. 

The game will be broadcast on Fox Soccer Channel in the US and Canada, and might be found at pirate video sites such as AtdheNet.

UPDATE, October 18, 09:48: Emmanuel Adebayor was fit to play for the Spurs after all. Newcastle got a well deserved point after coming from behind twice in Sunday's match.

Newcastle Eyeing An Undefeated October

A Black and White October? That would be the limit of Newcaastle United's unbeaten streak, I think. 

Then again, take a look at how lucky the team has been. They wrestled a point from an unbalanced Arsenal side. They weren't supposed to win at Villa Park in mid September. But they fought hard and got a point against their former ace goalkeeper, Shay Given. And this past weekend, they came out swinging against Wolverhampton at Molineaux, a ground that has given them much trouble in recent years. But a fortunate correct call by the referee prevented a Wolves penalty, and a fortunate, incorrect call by a referee disallowed what would have been Wolverhapton's tying goal at the very end of the second half. 

Newcastle needed luck to get this far without a loss. But they are gelling as a team. Their defense has been better than average most of the time. Their offense has been below average, until the last two games when Demba Ba began to produce goals. And theough it all, their midfield has held everything together, and it is arguably one of the four best midfields in the league this season.

One of the other great midfields belongs to Tottenham. Newcastle get to rest for 13 days before hosting the Spurs. During that time, five players should fully recover from minor injuries and be ready for action: forward Shola Ameobi, midfielders Hatem Ben Arfa and Dan Gossling, and defenders Mike Williamson and Davide Santon, their crucial new left back. If they somehow get a point out of the Tottenham match, then Newcastle should keep going until the end of the month.

When the lads visit Stoke on October 31, I expect them to finally lose. If not there, then surely the next game against Everton.

What's that? They can defeat both of them? They can take this winning streak into the City of Manchester Stadium on November 19th? I like your attitude, Geordie faithful.

On to the news wire. There's so much to share:

A freelancer over at Bleacher Report summarizes how Newcastle are already surpassing expectations this season.

Sunday Sun: Pardew praises "blossoming" sqad

Footbo: "I believe its a very good time to be a Newcastle fan and I think theres a squad here, if we are lucky with injuries that could be the biggest surprise this year in english football."

The National: "It might not have been splashed on headline-grabbing transfer fees but Ashley has put his money where his mouth is."

Black And White And Read All Over: "[Joey Barton] may not have been present to irritate Wolves - something Alan Pardew lamented after the game, claiming he "might have stopped or slowed down the game" - but we still managed to upset them with a combination of clinical finishing, breathtaking goalkeeping, committed defending and, perhaps most crucially, the not inconsiderable assistance of the officials."

Blog On The Tyne: "Let's be honest, Ba went into the clash with Blackburn under a little bit of pressure after failing to find the net in his first few games. Yet Ba walked out of St James' Park clutching the match ball which had been signed by all of his team-mates."

View From The Shite Seats: "We may not be the best team in the league, and we may well fall away over the coming months, especially during the difficult November fixture list, but for once we have something to shout about and a team to feel rightly proud of, so let’s enjoy it while it lasts."

Goodbye, Rocky

As of Sunday morning, the January transfer period for Newcastle United was looking boring. The team had shopped James Perch as I hoped they would. They did lend out Cisco as I suspected they would. And they acquired an attacking midfielder as everyone had hoped, but it wasn't a player whose name was circulating the rumor mill (at least the first three weeks of January). It was looking like Newcastle were going to close the month with a conservative transfer period, as manager Allen Pardew needed more time to assess his weak midfield and scout new talent for next season. Newcastle's defense had improved. Joey Barton had improved. Three key players were recovering from injury. And the overall spirit if the team was mixed, but seemed to be gaining confidence with the points tally at 30.

But then Monday happened. I wonder if Newcastle supporters will name that bleak day - the day the club sold their star 22 year-old striker, their number 9, Andy Carroll to Liverpool for an unprecedented, £35 Million transfer fee (that's not counting his increasing salary). The club initially rejected Liverpool's offers. But when Carroll submitted a transfer request, the club had no choice. Carroll ("Rocky," to some supporters), is gone, scheduled to play Sunday against Chelsea at Stamford bridge, where Liverpool sent its star striker, Fernando Torres, to make room for Carroll. It's madness.

Newcastle will have to rely on its four remaining strikers and two star midfielders, who are yet to return from injury. I am counting Ranger, Best, Lovenkrands, and Ameobi as the strikers. The midfielders are Ben Arfa and Gosling.

This is a precious situation. Newcastle only need between six and nine points between now and May 14th. But what if Jose or Coloccini become injured? What if Ranger is hurt? They should earn more than nine points in the coming weeks, but funny (bad) things happen in football. The team spirit seems healthy, but it was certainly news to fans that their biggest star wasn't happy. Are there any other starters who are disgruntled?

And what of Carroll? He's extremely talented and should score many goals in his career. He should especially score more goals now that he will have better balls sent his way in the box. Liverpool simply has a better midfield overall than Newcastle (about half the teams in the Premiership do, actually).

But there are questions if experience and confidence with Carroll. He's still just 22 years old, but has only 44 Premiership caps to his name. He is not yet national team material (not as a starter, anyway). His salary has just gone up from £35,000 per week to £80,000 per week, and he is yet to produce stellar output to match the higher salary. Carroll is, of course, playing down this apparent pressure to become a legend. It is a risk for both Carroll and Liverpool. Carroll is risking his future as a star, and Liverpool is risking a lot more - an insane amount of cash they arguably didn't need to spend.

Forever The Asshole

This is not breaking news, but Spike Lee is a world-class asshole. Oh yes, he is also a member of the famed "New York School" of filmmaking that closed out the 20th century (which includes DePalma, Scorsese, the Coen brothers, Jarmusch, and Sayles). He has made at least three great movies in his 22-year career. But make no mistake, he's an asshole and is proud of it. The fact that he's a Knicks fan should be a clue. But Lee is exercising his asshole powers a little bit more this month. He is so jealous of the Green dynasty of the NBA, he has crossed conference lines and has paid thousands of dollars to root for the Lakers in the finals.

In my opinion, the MVP of the finals is Ray Allen. He and Spike Lee are good friends. Allen had this to say about Lee:

"I looked up and I saw Spike cheering for the Lakers," Allen said. "That set me back a little bit. If he is a Knick fan, I'm figuring he was for the Eastern Conference. But he's cheering for the Lakers. I'm going to have to talk to him about that."

Lee has us Bostonians nailed when it comes to baseball titles and race in baseball. The Yankees promoted a black player into their rotation well before the Red Sox did. The Yankees have 26 championships to Boston's 7.

But when it comes to the Knicks, there is simply no comparison to the Celtics. The Celtics are superior in terms of of playoffs appearances and in terms of race.

Let's begin with the issue of race. The Celtics had the first Black superstar, who became the first Black coach in the NBA (and a player-coach at that).

The Celtics will soon have 17 NBA championships. The Knicks will only have two. Forever two championship. They almost stole a third with their clutching, pushing and grabbing under Pat Riley in the late 1990s. But now they are doomed to remain with two trophies, forever.

Because they suck. Because they are beyond suck.

They were originally named the Knickerbockers, which is a cool name. But now it is shortened to the name of a shaving injury.

They suck worse than the New Jersey Jets. They really are the bottom of the New York and New Jersey sports barrel.

They had one awesome moment, in their great 1970 season, when they went 60-22, led by 5 great players whose names hang in the MSG rafters.

And there's their biggest living supporter, courtside in L.A., obsessed with the greatest team in the short history of the NBA.

Green 17, Spike. I'm sure you'll deal with it.

Oh, and the Celtics record this season was 66-15. Let's assume that if this season had been 82 games, as it was in 1970, it would have been 66-16. That's still a winning percentage of 80.4%. Who thinks the Knicks will ever come close to their best 73.1%?

The A-Rod Narrative: He's the Hero of the Day (just today)

Michael Kay, the Yankees wingnut, needs a big ol' cup of Shut The Fuck Up. Really. The bastard needs to go away. When A-Rod came to bat today at the bottom of the 9th, with the bases loaded, he put the A-Rod narrative into high gear. Kay spoke about how A-Rod has always had trouble coming through in the clutch as a member of the Yankees. He explained how the presusure was on for A-Rod to get a hit in this situation. "He hears the whispers," Kay told the YES audience.

Then, as the Yankee script dictates now and then, A-Rod was a hero today. He hit a walkoff, grand slam home run. It's only April, and A-Rod already viewed this game against Baltimore as a must win, as he explained in the post-slam interview.

Kay exclaimed:

"Joy, relief, and a 10-7 Yankee win....Today they love him."

Yes, they love him today. It's a special day in the Yankee empire, where the fans have a ridiculously short memory. On regular days, they don't show love for A-Rod. They tend to forget that the front office watned A-Rod more than Boston did. They forget that A-Rod won an MVP two seasons ago (wouldn't that have made him a real Yankee and stop the 'whispers'?). They are cannibals, the Yankee faithful. They eat and kill their own on days they don't win. And when winning is the only thing, there is no fun. And the Yankees are the least fun team in the Majors.

But A-Rod, this is for you. You earned it. They won't still love you tomorrow.