Over the 17 years I have run this tiny blog, I have been a doomer. It isn’t some outlier opinion. I knew when I started that I would be documenting the hell that is the 21st Century.
Joe Biden and Donald Trump are confirmed for their 2020 rematch. The presidential campaign, now underway, will probably be the worst in US history. This campaign is already the longest. It started in 2022 when Trump announced. Yeah.
In many ways, I wish this was just like the 1956 rematch between Ike and Stevenson. Eisenhower cruised to victory. Stability and conformity prevailed. But these are not stable times. Joe Biden should be leading Trump by 10 points. Instead, he and Trump are tied in most polls.
Biden stuck in a statistical tie with Trump is the result of a lot of poor strategy and performance by his White House. Biden has not interacted with the public. He hasn’t released videos on YouTube. It’s obvious he doesn’t write his own Tweets, although I suspect he approves them.
The refrain of this post is quite simple. Biden and the nation are in grave danger because he’s tied with Trump when he should be 10 points ahead. I will be repeating variations of this a couple of times. I apologize in advance.
As of today, both the BDS movement and abortion are more popular than President Biden. Poll history tells us he can't possibly win with approval numbers this low. I don't buy into 'history repeating itself like poetry' bullshit, with all the Gen-X journalists comparing 1968 to 2024 (I am also a proud Xer, born in '73). But this summer looks like a looming disaster for Joe and the Democrats. They made it clear that the US must prop-up Israel forever, no matter how small the benefits to the American people and no matter how many times young Americans question that policy. The Democrats have also made it clear that while they welcome Republicans and anti-abortionists to their big tent, they have zero tolerance for critics of Israel.
Joe Biden should be leading Donald Trump by 10 points. He’s not. Why?
It’s because Biden has bled too much support. All incumbent presidents lose voters between their election and re-election. We can call that a haircut (the banking term). But Joe Biden has lost significant support among key demographics. We’re talking double-digit drops with Black men, Hispanics, Asians, and voters under the age of 40. All of those drops explain why Joe Biden’s lead in New York State has dropped from 20 points to just 10. Biden will easily win New York State. But a 10 point drop in a Democratic-majority state spells big trouble for states with smaller differences in registered voters.
These drops in support are going to cost Biden key swing states. Take Georgia, for example. Voter suppression and lack of enthusiasm for Biden has swung Georgia firmly back into Trump’s column. In Arizona, Democrats outnumber Republicans, and yet Democratic Senate candidate Reuben Gallego is leading in the polls while Trump is leading Biden in Arizona. Michigan is slipping away. Incredibly, so is Nevada, again, where Democrats outnumber Republicans. My current (and very pessimistic) electoral map looks like this:
Biden should be the one with 280 electoral votes. Biden should be 10 points up in the polls. But he isn’t.
Sometimes I think Trump is actually weaker than Biden. Trump is unhinged, slower and older than he was in 2016. He is also a big loser. But Trump also has 70 million votes in the bag no matter how bad he is. Joe Biden needs to be great to get votes back. Trump just needs to be alive and he gets 70 million votes. Advantage, Trump.
The GOP autocracy is coming now, folks. Not 2028. It's happening now. Come up with a resistance and/or exile plan.