Democrats

Will A Weak Donald Trump Defeat An Even Weaker Joe Biden?

Over the 17 years I have run this tiny blog, I have been a doomer. It isn’t some outlier opinion. I knew when I started that I would be documenting the hell that is the 21st Century.

Joe Biden and Donald Trump are confirmed for their 2020 rematch. The presidential campaign, now underway, will probably be the worst in US history. This campaign is already the longest. It started in 2022 when Trump announced. Yeah.

In many ways, I wish this was just like the 1956 rematch between Ike and Stevenson. Eisenhower cruised to victory. Stability and conformity prevailed. But these are not stable times. Joe Biden should be leading Trump by 10 points. Instead, he and Trump are tied in most polls.

Biden stuck in a statistical tie with Trump is the result of a lot of poor strategy and performance by his White House. Biden has not interacted with the public. He hasn’t released videos on YouTube. It’s obvious he doesn’t write his own Tweets, although I suspect he approves them.

The refrain of this post is quite simple. Biden and the nation are in grave danger because he’s tied with Trump when he should be 10 points ahead. I will be repeating variations of this a couple of times. I apologize in advance.

As of today, both the BDS movement and abortion are more popular than President Biden. Poll history tells us he can't possibly win with approval numbers this low. I don't buy into 'history repeating itself like poetry' bullshit, with all the Gen-X journalists comparing 1968 to 2024 (I am also a proud Xer, born in '73). But this summer looks like a looming disaster for Joe and the Democrats. They made it clear that the US must prop-up Israel forever, no matter how small the benefits to the American people and no matter how many times young Americans question that policy. The Democrats have also made it clear that while they welcome Republicans and anti-abortionists to their big tent, they have zero tolerance for critics of Israel.

Joe Biden should be leading Donald Trump by 10 points. He’s not. Why?

It’s because Biden has bled too much support. All incumbent presidents lose voters between their election and re-election. We can call that a haircut (the banking term). But Joe Biden has lost significant support among key demographics. We’re talking double-digit drops with Black men, Hispanics, Asians, and voters under the age of 40. All of those drops explain why Joe Biden’s lead in New York State has dropped from 20 points to just 10. Biden will easily win New York State. But a 10 point drop in a Democratic-majority state spells big trouble for states with smaller differences in registered voters.

These drops in support are going to cost Biden key swing states. Take Georgia, for example. Voter suppression and lack of enthusiasm for Biden has swung Georgia firmly back into Trump’s column. In Arizona, Democrats outnumber Republicans, and yet Democratic Senate candidate Reuben Gallego is leading in the polls while Trump is leading Biden in Arizona. Michigan is slipping away. Incredibly, so is Nevada, again, where Democrats outnumber Republicans. My current (and very pessimistic) electoral map looks like this:

Biden should be the one with 280 electoral votes. Biden should be 10 points up in the polls. But he isn’t.

Sometimes I think Trump is actually weaker than Biden. Trump is unhinged, slower and older than he was in 2016. He is also a big loser. But Trump also has 70 million votes in the bag no matter how bad he is. Joe Biden needs to be great to get votes back. Trump just needs to be alive and he gets 70 million votes. Advantage, Trump.

The GOP autocracy is coming now, folks. Not 2028. It's happening now. Come up with a resistance and/or exile plan.

Joe Biden Constantly Tries To Be Ronald Reagan

In his years as president, Joe Biden has been trying to be like Ronald Reagan. He thinks he can maintain a centrist approach and not make any one side too upset or too happy. He’s trying to appeal to everyone and be likable. But you can’t be appealing if you don’t engage with the public.

Also, Ronald Reagan was not a centrist.

And you certainly can’t be appealing to your base if you making a public effort to court Nikki Haley voters.

I get strange looks from mainstream MSNBC Democrats when I point out that if Joe Biden was just a little more engaged with the 80 million who voted for him in 2020, he wouldn't be so thirsty for the weird, evil, anti-trump Republican vote. That vote is still vehemently anti-woman, anti-trans, anti-queer, and anti-worker.

Chris Murphy, arguably one of the nicest US Senators in the chamber, has tried to spin Joe’s centrist style as disappointing everyone by design. So while Reagan made most people feel good, Joe Biden makes most people feel down, and that was the plan.

You didn't have to make the strategic choice to be Ronald Reagan in the 2020s, Joe. You could have, um, listened to what voters under 40 want. They are the ones inheriting this environmental catastrophe. They are the ones who can't buy a house or apartment. They are the ones who are reporting that they are the saddest US generation since the Great Depression, while Americans over 60 are reporting they are richer and happier than ever before. Oh, but the men in that group are all voting for Trump! Great strategy, Joe.

Joe could have at least done a weekly video on YouTube. A little fireside chat for the kids who care. But Joe didn't even do that!

Look, we were all stressed out, doing drugs and committing suicide when Trump was dropping a dozen tweets a day (we're still committing suicide, see how young people are unhappy above). Joe could have found a happy medium between engaging with us and tweeting us to death. He chose to be the silent type. That doesn't help when you need to retain 80 million votes for the re-election.

Joe Biden might somehow win this election because Trump is so unhinged. But if I had to examine this as an objective outsider for the first time, I’d think Joe Biden is trying to lose. Intentionally.

Joe Biden Just Blew It

With a single, colossally bad statement, Joe Biden just unofficially lost the November election. Winning in November with a historically low approval rating is extremely difficult. It’s never been done! But his unwillingness to listen to anyone under the age of 40 dooms his chances. Young Democrats are asking good questions. They are asking why does the US prop-up Israel if all Israel does is keep Palestinians in ghettos. The answer from almost every elected Democrat is ‘shut the fuck up.’

It’s over for Joe. He knows it. At this point, I have to suspect he is simply throwing the election. He has my vote, of course. But he is going to lose. I can see it now.

I know when a president is finished. I saw it, sadly, with Jimmy Carter in the summer of 1980. I saw it again when George H.W. Bush had no answers for the far more charismatic Bill Clinton. I saw it again with Donald Trump, totally losing control of the world in the spring and summer of 2020. And I see it now happening to Joe Biden. He is not winning in November.

Today was the day that Joe Biden blew it. I cannot see him winning the election if he won't even address the needs of people under 40 years old. The youngs are concerned about the environmental catastrophe and they want a change in our relationship with Israel. Today Joe basically condemned them as if they did things far worse than set up tents and protest peacefully. He remembers Los Angeles 1992. He remembers Charlottesville 2017. But no. He condemned his own base of voters today. Joe -or perhaps I should say Brandon- is done.

What The Hell Is This?

With each week, Michigan looks more and more like a flip for Trump. That's a hole in the Blue Wall. If Biden loses Michigan and Pennsylvania, he loses the election (assuming he doesn't somehow take North Carolina). The lack of Democratic attention to college students and young people might finally cost them everything. It only takes a few upset defeats like this to ruin hundreds of millions of American lives. Assuming Trump squeaks out a victory, this would be the third time in 24 years that the winner of the popular vote -always a Democrat- loses the election. The sadness, despair and anger that we have felt since Trump took over the GOP in 2015 is going to become unbearable. How does everyone feel about the Democrats having a tiny majority in the House while Trump and the Senate pack our Federal courts to strengthen GOP minority rule? Won't it be fun? And all because the elders in the Democratic party thought it wasn't worth their time to listen to the needs to young people. Seriously. Leaders like Pelosi thought that young people would be a little upset about Gaza, but they'd get over it and vote in November. As unpopular as Biden is, I think young people would rescue him in November if there wasn't an invasion of Gaza. For now anyway, it appears Biden's embrace of Netanyahu's war crimes is the red line that causes millions of young people to abstain from voting this November. Biden barely had re-election in the bag! Now I am not sure.

It's The 2020s: Time For Progressives To Go On The Offensive

This is part two of a quick two-part post. It’s about the short term political future of the US in the turbulent, depressing 2020s.

I’m going to keep this brief, as books have been written about how the left should fight back against states pulling right. The solution is to go left. Pull back left. Do not ever surrender.

Okay, but how? While never easy, the strategy is to cut off Democrats that are furthest to the right. If progressives had their way. Democrats like Richie Torres, Henry Cuellar, Adriano Espaillat and Ed Case would be upset by progressives. The needle for the Democratic caucus would edge left, in-step with the culture. The Democratic policymakers who don’t care about women’s rights, or the environmental catastrophe or freedom-destroying red states would be purged from the party.

Locally, progressives need to pull left. Codify abortion rights. Get those marijuana decriminalization laws passed. Raise the state minimum wage. Tax the rich a little more. Make your good state better.

Run for office. Policies will not write themselves. We need progressives to win seats, no matter how minor. Get that school board chair. Get on the city council. Oust that cranky old mayor. Quit your job and run for office. You job sucks anyway and you can probably go back to the private workforce if you have a decent political career.

Policies will beat back the Right. Pointing out their hypocrisy does not work. Shaming them does not work. They don’t give a shit about your feelings, your opinions or your tweets. Get into office and get to work on policy.

Outsmart them. And out-policy them in the halls of government.

They are the minority party. We are the majority party. Let’s act like it.